What is the Value on the Move — PEG With Hist Growth Screen?
The Value on the Move — PEG With Hist Growth Screen is a rules-based stock screen from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), built around the idea of growth at a reasonable price, or GARP. There is no marquee investor attached to it — the strategy comes from AAII's own research into combining the PEG ratio with evidence that a company's results are turning higher. Read the name as two tests. "Value" asks for a price that is modest against the company's growth. "On the move" asks that the growth be live: earnings still climbing and a share price the market has begun to reward. The feature that defines this version is the growth rate it drops into the PEG — the company's actual, realized record over the past five years, not a projection of what may come next.
A PEG anchored to what a company has delivered
The PEG ratio compares how expensive a stock is with how fast it grows. Divide the price-earnings multiple by the earnings growth rate: a P/E of 18 on 18% growth is a PEG of 1.0, while the same P/E on 9% growth is 2.0. The lower the figure, the cheaper the growth, and a value below one traditionally flags a company whose expansion the market has yet to pay full price for. The screen hunts for that mispricing and pairs it with proof the growth is real.
The growth rate is the hinge on which the two Value on the Move screens turn. This one uses the historical five-year growth rate in earnings per share — a figure the company has already earned and reported, that you can trace year by year in the financial statements. Its counterpart divides by the estimated forward growth rate drawn from analyst consensus. That single input is the core distinction, and choosing the realized number has a clear appeal: it is a fact rather than an opinion, immune to the optimism that can creep into a forecast, and it exists for thousands of companies no analyst bothers to cover — so the historical screen casts a wider net. The catch sits on the other side of the same coin, and the final section returns to it.
What the Value on the Move — PEG With Hist Growth Screen looks for
- Over-the-counter (OTC) stocks are excluded.
- The PEG ratio — the current price-earnings ratio divided by the five-year historical EPS growth rate — is greater than 0.2 and no higher than 1.0.
- Earnings per share from continuing operations are positive for the latest 12 months and for each of the last five fiscal years.
- Same-quarter earnings growth, comparing each quarter with the matching quarter a year before, is positive across each of the last four fiscal quarters.
- The 26-week relative price strength ranks in the top 70% of the entire database, a relative-strength reading of 70 or above.
Why a realized record can work
Grounding the value test in booked results removes a whole category of error. There is no forecast to be revised away, no consensus to prove too rosy; the five-year growth rate either happened or it did not, and an investor can open the statements and see how steadily it was built. That reliability is also why the screen can reach companies Wall Street ignores, where a forward estimate simply does not exist.
The rest of the rules keep a proven grower from being bought after its prime. Positive earnings in each of the last five years rule out the erratic; four straight quarters of year-over-year gains show the trend is still intact right up to the latest report; and the demand that price strength rank in the top 30% over six months is what makes the stock "on the move" rather than a former winner drifting sideways. The floor of 0.2 on the PEG matters more here than it might seem: a five-year rate can be inflated by a weak starting year, which flatters the ratio, and cutting off the lowest readings screens out some of those distortions along with stocks whose multiple is quietly collapsing.
What to keep in mind
A track record is solid ground, but the market prices the future, and that is the screen's blind spot. A superb five-year history says nothing certain about year six; growth can stall the quarter after the data ends, and a trailing PEG will still call the stock cheap while its story deteriorates. This is the standard hazard of driving by the rear-view mirror — the screen cannot see a turning point until it shows up in reported numbers. The quarterly-earnings and relative-strength filters are meant to soften that risk, yet a company can clear all of them and still sit one disappointing report away from a lower multiple. Where the sister screen bets on the forecast and its errors, this one bets on the past and its inertia. Use it to assemble candidates, then judge for yourself whether the history is likely to continue.
Sources
American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) — Stock Investor Pro screen definition and commentary for the Value on the Move — PEG With Hist Growth Screen.
The growth-at-a-reasonable-price idea behind the screen owes much to Peter Lynch, whose One Up on Wall Street (1989) framed the price-earnings ratio measured against earnings growth as a test of value.